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Foundations

Why Experts Overrate Their Own Expertise

Hindsight Bias and the Narrative Fallacy

The Illusion of Validity (and Why Track Records Mislead)

The Planning Fallacy: Why Every Project Runs Over

Building a Pre-Mortem

Checkpoint: Overconfidence

Practice & Application

Build It: Pre-Mortem a Real Plan

Outside View vs. Inside View, Side by Side

Names the three illusions behind unearned confidence — hindsight bias, the illusion of validity, and the planning fallacy — and teaches the pre-mortem, a repeatable tool for pressure-testing a plan before committing to it.

Experts routinely feel certain about forecasts that turn out wrong, and organizations
routinely approve plans that run over budget and past deadline — not from carelessness,
but from three specific, well-documented illusions. This module names them and gives you
a pressure-test — the pre-mortem — that catches a bad plan before you commit to it.

Overconfidence — The Illusion of Skill and Understanding

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