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Start here

The decision you're learning to make

Calibrated confidence

A band, not 'I'm sure'

The disconfirmer

What would change your mind

The reproducibility test, and the considered judgement

Would a colleague reach the same reading?

Check yourself

Knowledge check: stating confidence

Knowledge check: the disconfirmer

Knowledge check: the real test

Knowledge check: thin cues

What you can now do, and where it goes

What you can now do

Take it with you

Your confidence card

References

Segment 3.3 of Module 3, confidence and the disconfirmer: attach a calibrated confidence band to a localisation, name the finding that would overturn it, apply the reproducibility test and the considered judgement. Built direct.

Module 3 - Locating the Problem (Segment 3.3: Confidence, and What Would Change It)

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