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Price the downside

Bear, Base, Bull — Run the Three Scenarios

Invert It — How Would I Guarantee This Fails?

Checkpoint: The Worst Case

Run any big call as three honest scenarios — bear, base, bull — then ask the question that actually unfreezes you: could I survive the bear case? Pair it with inversion (how would I guarantee this fails?) to surface the real risks you've been avoiding naming.

Vague fear is paralyzing; a named worst case is usually survivable. Investors price a decision as three scenarios — you can run your business calls the exact same way.

Could I Survive the Worst Case?

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