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The foundational framework: why the published result is only the tip of the iceberg, and why the physical capture device is the only unmediated record.

Before you analyse a single number, you need to know which numbers you can trust. This module sets out the Iceberg Doctrine and the Primary Source Doctrine that anchor every method in the course.

The Iceberg Framework

A source-by-source map of every record an election produces — who holds it, what it contains, and the lawful route to obtain it before it disappears.

Most forensic work in 2023 failed on access, not analysis. This module maps the submerged mass: every public, INEC-held and third-party data source, what each contains, and the lawful route to it.

The Raw Data Atlas

The five-stage pipeline and eleven-test triangulation matrix that turn raw election records into polling-unit findings a tribunal can rely on.

Records are not findings. This module teaches the pipeline and the cross-checks that turn BVAS, server, telecom and result-sheet data into polling-unit findings — with confidence ratings and the gaps stated honestly.

From Raw Data to Evidence

How a machine-learning study of 123,918 polling units detected statistical anomalies in published results — and what its geographic findings do and don't prove.

When you only have published results, statistics is your instrument. This module walks through Joachim Oye MacEbong's study of the 2023 presidential results — its method, its geographic findings, and the discipline it takes to read them without partisanship.

Detecting Manipulation: The MacEbong Method

Two landmark audits of 2023: the BBC's tally-sheet cross-check in Rivers State and CCIJ's national scrape-and-archive pipeline — and what each could and couldn't prove.

One team went deep on a single state. The other went wide across the whole country.

Cross-Referencing Reality: The BBC and CCIJ Methods

What the international observers agreed on, why neutral methodology is non-negotiable, and a five-step blueprint for running your own audit of the next election.

The capstone. See how independent observers with different methods reached the same conclusion about 2023 — then assemble everything in this course into a repeatable audit for the next election.

International Convergence and Building Your Own Audit

A six-module masterclass in forensic election analysis: where the real evidence lives, how to obtain it lawfully, and how to turn raw BVAS, server, telecom and result-sheet data into findings that survive a tribunal.

Every contested Nigerian election produces two records: the one INEC publishes, and the one it holds. This masterclass teaches data journalists, analysts and monitoring teams to work with both — from mapping every raw data source and securing it lawfully, to cross-checking BVAS, backend, IReV, telecom and collation records polling unit by polling unit, to reporting findings with the neutrality and rigour a tribunal demands.

The Iceberg Doctrine: Election Forensics & Data Science